A simple two-outcome example
Imagine both sides of a market are priced at decimal odds of 1.90. Each price implies about 52.63%. Added together, the two implied probabilities equal about 105.26% rather than 100%.
The extra percentage reflects the pricing margin embedded in the market, although the bookmaker's real expected margin can differ depending on how money is distributed and how the market moves.
Why margin matters for value analysis
If you compare a model probability directly with a raw bookmaker probability, you should remember that the bookmaker probability contains margin. Removing or accounting for that margin can make market comparisons more precise.
Lower margin does not guarantee a winning bet
A more competitive price is useful, but the underlying probability estimate still matters. Price shopping can improve long-run returns without changing the actual football outcome.
Responsible betting
Football probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Past results do not ensure future performance. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose and use licensed operators where gambling is legal for you.
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